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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
While Monday night’s fresh high proves that sellers aren’t exactly retaking control, not yet extending higher or reacting down sharply also reflects the current range’s attraction. Trending away from it the first time will likely retrace entirely.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher overnight was largely retraced into Tuesday’s open, which then extended down to the 1253.00 pullback limit. Bouncing from there stopped just short of a  second consecutive higher close, but the door open to retracing the recent breakout to 1244.00 and 1225.00. Extending higher anyway would target 1270.00 and potentially 1286.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher Tuesday instead of rejecting Monday’s close above 15.88 has confirmed a breakout, requiring at least one more higher close, and targeting 16.30 or 16.85.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s test of the 165-12 pullback limit was retested down to its 165-11 low Tuesday morning. And then lower, targeting 164-12/164-20 until recovering back above Monday afternoon’s 166-16 high.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s breakout and Monday’s confirmation weren’t optimal, but extended higher Tuesday anyway, filling the gap above at 42.00-42.35. It also fulfills the minimum third higher close of Friday’s confirmed breakout. The breakout and confirmation weren’t optimal, so the recovery remains vulnerable to reversing down quickly, and back under 41.90 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday to and through 1.95 helped to offset Monday’s gap down, and to confirm the pullbacks have been from positions of strength. But a second consecutive higher close would be helpful confirmation to finally launching the next upleg.