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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | May 9, 2016 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Narrow ranging Monday while commodities crumbled might suggest stability, but it is more likely anxiousness that should compensate for the delay by extending sharply to its 1.1245 target when its trending resumes. And that trending is likely to be down, having triggered its 1.1485 sell signal Thursday, despite not confirming it Friday.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Friday having exploited the pullback’s second chance at triggering a reversal above 1282.70 — and that reversal having extended sharply higher intraday — China warning against a near-term recovery sent commodities sharply lower overnight. Opening Monday at the 1271.00 area prior lows was extended lower intraday, allowing the reaction to extend to 1241.00 before being able to launch another recovery attempt.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Struggling to maintain its intraday recovery above 17.50 Friday was unable to absorb Sunday night commodity crash in reaction to China’s warning. Already testing 17.00, the pullback has little chance of avoiding lower lows at 16.75.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Regardless of how much intraday gain had been retraced, closing Friday above 165-00 kept alive the rally’s momentum. Firming Monday instead of surging again does suggest that optimism is restrained, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective for extending the rally to 166-30 and 167-26.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing the 45.75 buy signal by 20 cents Sunday night didn’t assure closing above it Monday, especially when the morning started reversing back down to attack recent lows around 43.25. The path back up has come to require testing a fresh low, which must hold 42.50 to avoid already reversing the trend down.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
If Friday’s dip to 2.05 will suffice as retesting last Monday’s 2.03 close, then its reaction shouldn’t delay recovering 2.14 to launch the next upleg. Monday’s narrow ranging didn’t even threaten it, so any further delay would all but require testing 2.03.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only