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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The corrective bounce extended higher Wednesday”s to 1.2750 resistance instead of neutralizing the attraction below. This does create more room to absorb selling pressure while eventually retesting the gap back to Monday”s 1.2520 close.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday morning”s strength retested last Thursday”s ~1219.50 highs before reacting down ahead of the FOMC Minutes to 1205.00. That news triggered a post-close retest of the morning”s high, too late to gain traction. But not reversing it down through Thursday morning would suggest a bigger rally is underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The post-close reaction up to Wednesday”s FOMC Minutes stopped short of retracing all of the morning”s strength. That strength had been retraced entirely into the afternoon. Unless extending higher through Thursday”s open, fresh lows remain likely.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for noise around the 140-12 target up to 141-00 was attacked Wednesday to within 3 ticks. The market wasn”t very responsive intraday to other volatility elsewhere, suggesting that the rally may be peaking in its retest of the prior high.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows fulfilled the minimum objective for the extended decline to 87.25. Having gapped down, the decline”s next lower target at 85.95 is likelier to be tested, too. Just gapping up above 89.00 Thursday would form an “Island Reversal” setup, which is only a temporary detour.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s extended bounce to 3.97 without closing above it left the recovery attempt vulnerable. Wednesday”s drop under 3.87 now requires holding a test of 3.83 to maintain any potential for another rally leg preceding new lows.