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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The fourth of a 4-day sequence Wednesday fulfilled its likeliest scenario of not confirming the third day’s break lower. The fourth day’s overnight low formed optimistically short of touching a prior low. This suggests the sequence will repeat again, with another break lower for 1-2 days.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Days of teasing at the 1333.00 buy signal was resolved by gapping down sharply under last Thursday’s 1320.50 lows and attacking 1313.00 intraday. The gap down was neutralized so that closing above 1322.00 can signal that a bottom is forming, and closing above 1330.00 can launch an upleg.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two days of probing under the 20.05 pullback limit weren’t rejected, and instead gapped down to fresh lows at 19.45-19.60. Back above 19.75-19.85 could trigger an aggressive rally, but there is meanwhile potential for extending down to 18.90-19.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
One more dip under 171-08 Wednesday should suffice for this initial downleg to retrace 173-04 and then back up to 176-10 to complete the topping pattern.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows at Wednesday’s open only attacked the 42.65-43.45 target area down to 43.70 before bouncing in reaction to the morning’s EIA report. The gap open requires being retested, and should be probed into the target area.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Wednesday to Friday’s 2.67 low probed lower to attack the 2.65 pullback potential. Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness under all recent prior lows has little room or time for absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.