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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The week’s rejection of Monday’s false break higher was extended down sharply Friday morning to 1.1065. Its reaction up to test 1.1120 still held negative territory, suggesting that any near-term bounce would fail.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down sharply lower on Friday’s payrolls report once again avoided the 1375.50 target, and probed under Wednesday night’s test of the 1355.50 support by $10. Closing above 1353.00 would resume the rally, at least to test 1375.50. But closing any lower Monday would suggest the 1375.50 target won’t be tested before developing a more substantial decline.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Friday in reaction to Friday’s payrolls fell to 19.75. Resuming the rally requires closing above 20.20. No deeper backing-and-filling would be required first, but bottoming here should start recovering no later than Tuesday morning would.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction down to payrolls filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s close and dipped a little deeper to also test 171-22 by several ticks. Assuming this is the range’s lower-end, then Monday should not delay rallying back up to or toward 172-26/173-04 where a new upleg can still trigger.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s weakness barely attacked the 40.65-40.80 sell signal, let alone touch it. The decline is not required to resume immediately, but any higher highs intraday should be retraced into the close.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday to 2.80 and extending lower to retest 2.77 support must still hold to keep alive the same recovery pattern that was trying to form earlier this week. Closing above 2.85 would signal the rally to fresh highs underway.