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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrowly ranging session tried resolving up soon after Tuesday’s open. But the setup’s first break was likely to be false, and testing 1.1140 resistance will signal momentum reversing back down under 1.1105.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down again Tuesday attacked Sunday night’s lows at 1336.00 before bouncing back into positive territory at 1348.50. Back under 1341.00 would resume the decline to produce one more lower close before a rally can be credible.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s 19.50 low was attacked at Tuesday’s opening gap down, and then reversed quickly to only fluctuate around unchanged. The gap down will want to be retested before a durable rally attempt could be credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not yet exploiting recoveries from probing fresh lows Sunday night and pre-open Monday, the delay could be considered pessimism, and therefore potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. But only for so long. Tuesday exploited that potential sooner, rather than later, breaking through 171-22 and extending to test 172-26 resistance.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s resistance test at 43.35 had reacted down a little into the close, and then a little lower overnight to 42.50. Firming into Tuesday’s open was retraced back to overnight lows. The reversal should become obvious with little delay (API is post-close Tuesday and EIA is Wednesday morning), or else closing above 43.35 would extend the detour up higher.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s break back under 2.80 extended Monday to gap down and test last week’s 2.72 low. The close narrowly failed to recover 2.77, which Tuesday’s open exploited by gapping down to last week’s lows then attacking last month’s lows down to 2.62. That will have to recover from probing lower in order to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.