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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | August 16, 2016 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up sharply Tuesday removes the 1.1175 sell signal’s near-term influence. Although its slight break Friday wasn’t confirmed Monday, that sequence had not formed a durable base to launch a new rally leg. And gapping up doesn’t make it any more credible. But rejecting the rally immediately isn’t likely, even in the most bearish scenario, so I’m monitoring one more session before identifying new parameters.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday back to the range’s upper-end wasn’t any likelier to extend than was Friday’s opening spike up. In fact, almost the entire gap was retraced before noon. But the 1352.70 bounce limit was probed again into the afternoon, and should hold as resistance for optimal confirmation that 1332.00 remain in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday was retraced entirely through the morning and into negative territory. That didn’t extend down, but 19.90 held as resistance to prevent sellers buyers from gaining traction.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging at Tuesday’s open to touch Monday’s high was literally as much strength as possible without actually reversing the trend back up. It held, and reversed down under 171-22 to test 171-02. Closing lower again Wednesday would make a buy signal unlikely to trigger before new lows were probed

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s breakout was on-track for producing its eventual higher close, which is required after being confirmed Monday. The likely target area at 46.80-47.60 was attacked to within a dime, so probing it Wednesday and closing negative would be a likely top.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging Tuesday morning did not resemble the initial strength that would have been likely to extend sharply higher through the day. That setup is no longer relevant, although gapping up above the 2.62 prior high would at least suggest a bottom has formed.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only