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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | August 18, 2016 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s late spike back up to Tuesday’s opening high extend higher Thursday morning, attacking 1.1375 resistance and qualifying as a breakout from a multi-session range. A second consecutive higher close would require a third eventual higher close, so a bearish scenario must reverse down sharply Friday.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting up after Wednesday’s close to FOMC Minutes had retested 1355.50 resistance. It was still being tested Thursday morning despite 1361.50 overnight. The attraction below to 1329.00-1332.00 isn’t invalidated, but being positioned closer to 1367.50 resistance makes its recovery easier..

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Shallow overnight strength still had not filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. No rally leg has been launched, but meanwhile all unfinished business below is neutralized.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having recovered only to test 171-26 Wednesday, Thursday’s narrow ranging around it needed to close above 172-16 to suggest a recovery is underway. Not yet rallying out of Friday’s open would become substantially more vulnerable to resuming Tuesday’s decline.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs Thursday trended through the 46.80-47.60 bounce target and 40 cents above 48.00. This does not change whether an abrupt and aggressive reaction down is the appropriate path to starting a new downleg. But closing higher Friday would make the current rally likely to extend.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness wasn’t going to prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. But that reaction would be likely to fail, yet it did not. The recent range’s 2.63 upper-end was probed up to 2.70. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm Thursday’s breakout. Meanwhile, back under 2.61 would target filling last week’s gap back down to 2.55.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only