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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap down held at Tuesday’s opening low, before bouncing sharply into positive territory. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal momentum reversing up. Otherwise, lower lows remain likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down to test a fresh low Thursday at 1305.50 was recovered well into positive territory, testing bounce limits at 1312.30 and 1315.70. Closing any higher would signal a much bigger detour on the way down to 1296.00-1297.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Silver’s recent relative outperformace against Gold helped it to avoid a fresh low Thursday, but its bounce up to 19.00 remained under the 19.15 prior week’s high that must hold to maintain near-term likelihood to retest overnight lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down sharply Thursday and extending to 169-06 was reversed back above Wednesday’s high to 170-27, as the sloppy, choppy range persisted ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Closing above 170-02 could greet the news from a position of strength, but there otherwise remains no attractive setup.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down sharply Thursday tested the next lower attraction at 43.45. The second consecutive lower close under a multi-session range now requires there eventually be at least a third lower close. Bounces should meanwhile hold any test of 43.90-44.20.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position not of weakness didn’t prevent reacting down to retest the 2.82 sell signal, and probing it deeper than Tuesday’s test down to 2.78. A second consecutive lower close would confirm momentum reversing down. Otherwise, closing back above 2.88 would again be credible for extending higher.