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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | September 6, 2016 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Retracing all of Friday’s initial spike up before the weekend, back down to 1.1155, was not itself a new sell signal, and it didn’t prevent Tuesday from surging back up to the spike’s 1.1260 peak. But closing back under 1.1175 is needed to reinstate the downtrend.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Tuesday to 1336.50 extended sharply higher intraday to 1354.00-1357.00, extending the decline’s bigger detour which had been signaled Thursday by closing above 1312.70-1315.30. But Tuesday’s extension wasn’t necessary, since Friday had closed back under 1329.00. Closing back under 1343.00 would reinstate the 1296.00-1297.00 objective. Closing first above 1362.00 would suggest an even bigger rally underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Stopping short Friday of filling its gap back up to 19.48 didn’t prevent extending higher during the holiday to gap up to 19.65 and extend through the prior outstanding gap at 19.85, testing 20.20. Friday’s breakout above 19.00 was confirmed already during the holiday, so Tuesday’s extension fulfilled it. Closing back under 19.75 would signal that the bounce had ended.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation had filled the gap back down to 168-28, although that wasn’t required. Its reaction up extended Tuesday to test the 170-02 buy signal as resistance. Anything in between continues to be the unpredictable sloppy and choppy ranging.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing 46.50 during the Labor Day holiday was retraced entirely back into negative territory Tuesady under 44.00. But the 44.20 bounce limit was still being tested into the close, so the decline has no excuse to be delayed.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday didn’t confirm Thursday’s break under 2.82, but that didn’t prevent Tuesday from gapping down to test 2.71. This sequence is the first three of a four-session setup. The fourth session would also fail to confirm Tuesday’s break. This is only useful if Wednesday were to gap down or probe lower, which would be likely to recover.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only