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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | September 23, 2016 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The portion of Thursday’s break back under 1.1265 was retraced immediately Friday, and held through the morning. The afternoon ranged around it, resisted by the gap back to Thursday’s 1.1280 open, neutralizing its attraction without reversing momentum up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s dip was still overlapping 1341.50 but not necessarily closing under it. It isn’t optimal for rejecting the week’s rally, but it does prevent confirming Thursday’s close above resistance, keeping the door open to another downleg without delay.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing back at or under 19.85 Friday does prevent the recent multi-day surge from being confirmed. Closing Friday back under 19.75 would have been optimal. Alternatively, almost any initial weakness Monday — if not already sliding Sunday night — would be credible for retracing the week’s rally.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending higher Friday would have confirmed Thursday’s breakout from the ongoing bottoming pattern that we’ve been monitoring. Not yet confirming it does not equate to invalidating it. But the breakout’s rally should become obvious no later than Tuesday if valid.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down extended to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s ~44.25 close. The test should hold, although it can temporarily probe a little deeper before recovering Monday. Regardless, Wednesday’s confirmed breakout already requires there to be at least an eventual fresh high close.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down on its EIA report extended lower Friday, holding a test of the “lower prior highs” at 2.94. Momentum has not reversed down, but the lower prior highs test must hold through the next close, if not already start recovering to resume the rally.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only