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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | March 16, 2015 - 2:42 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up and trending higher through Monday morning retraced 61.8% into the Complex Triangle that defined Thursday”s pattern. The test of 1.0625 then ranged around Thursday”s 1.0590 low. Closing above 1.0560 1.0650 would target 1.0855, but any delay would more likely test Friday”s low down to 1.0430.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having dipped back down to 1154.00 one time too many Friday, the recovery scenario became less likely than a retest of 1148.00. In fact, despite probing above 1161.00 Sunday night, Friday”s lows were probed Monday down to 1149.30. Now 1146.50 and 1141.00 are likely to be tested, too, unless the 1161.00 buy signal is recovered.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s gap up extended to probe above the prior three days” highs to 15.75. But a reversal soon filled the gap back down to Friday”s 15.50 close. The balance of the session ranged sideways, still having difficulty improving while the lower gap back to last Wednesday”s 15.37 gap remains unfilled.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ending the week while still holding 159-12/159-24 support produced a gap up Monday above 160-00. Closing above it would signal a new upleg underway. The majority of Monday”s session hovered pessimistically short of touching Thursday”s 160-26 high, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night”s open plunged to test 43.60, fulfilling the decline”s minimum target of a new low in the $43 handle. Its reaction up to 44.70 was reversed even lower to 42.85, but still recovered to touch 44.00. The $43 handle apparently offers a lot of support. Closing back above 44.30 would signal that at least this downleg had ended. Until then, the decline”s next lower target would be 37.15.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s gap down held Friday”s gap down in the 2.70. area. Avoiding even an intraday probe of fresh lows does suggest “ineffectual optimism,” which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Closing above 2.77 and 2.84 can still form a bottom and launch a rally leg.

Posted in Daily Spot