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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce was doomed to failure since Tuesday’s break had been confirmed. Friday’s gap down to probe fresh lows could fulfill the breakout’s minimum requirement with a new low close. Recovering immediately after a new low close on Fridays is unlikely without at least probing lower intraday Monday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The week’s earlier “ineffectual optimism” had not been offset by any significant selling pressure until Friday probed fresh lows for the week. But its gap down was retraced entirely, still not much pessimism for contrarian purposes.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Attacking fresh lows for the week greeted Friday’s open, still not having suffered much consequence for the week’s earlier “ineffectual optimism.” At least some minimal selling pressure is still likely before completing a bottom.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 163-27 and overlapping 164-08 had not yet signaled the decline was ending, and Friday’s break back into their range didn’t suggest otherwise.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday morning’s bounce was inhibited by following two consecutive closes under the 50.80 pullback limit, and after having fulfilled the 51.50 target. Reacting down didn’t signal a new downleg underway, but only closing above 51.50 would reinstate the rally.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 3.31 optimal pullback following Thursday’s breakout was probed down to 3.26, which must hold to maintain the upside momentum and potential for extending higher anyway on Monday.