Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.0650 buy signal was tested Tuesday morning, but held. The gap back down to Monday”s ~1.0590 close was filled, leaving no momentum active in either direction.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The required fresh low under 1146.50 with room for noise down to 1141.00 was fulfilled almost entirely soon after Tuesday”s open. A massive surge to 1158.00 was retraced back down to retest 1146.50, which was recovered back up to 1148.00 at the close. Not closing decisively under 1148.00 does keep the door open to recovering 1154.00 and 1161.00 to reverse the trend back up. Meanwhile, not yet recovering through Wednesday”s close — or not rallying to fresh highs in reaction to Wednesday”s post-close FOMC news — could then trend down a lot.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s quick dip filled the gap back outstanding at Wednesday”s close, but tested it only momentarily before surging back to and through the interim highs. The gap-fill”s delay had suggested its test would include a probe under Wednesday”s low before recovering, but that wasn”t required, so the reaction up is credible for extending higher.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeatedly holding tests of 159-12/159-24 support was rewarded by trending higher Monday night to 161-12. Post-open highs tested and retested 161-21. Wednesday”s FOMC news is being greeted from a position of strength, at least to expect a knee-jerk reaction down to 159-12/159-24 support to recover. But closing under it would not be bullish.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Pivot Reversal? Fresh trend lows intraday tested 42.65, and then recovered into positive territory above 44.00. That was retraced back down to test the 43.11 opening gap, which held as support. A higher close would have been optimal, but this sequence otherwise forms a bullish “Pivot Reversal” that must be confirmed by essentially extending higher without delay above 44.30. Otherwise, the trend remains down and next targeting 37.15.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapped up through its 2.77 buy signal to test 2.84. Like its prior two tests, probes above it continued overlapping it through the close instead of exceeding it decisively. Unlike its prior two tests the close was above 2.84. It might be premature to resolve up while having created a gap back down to Monday”s 2.71 close. Regardless, I still don”t view the current range as distribution or a continuation and expect it to resolve up.