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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | March 20, 2015 - 2:36 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap… ANNOUNCEMENT: This daily blog post will soon expand to include current patterns and parameters covering the 20-year bond, gasoline, and more currencies (those which we currently review during the daily Tour and Wrap) — also, annotated charts! Please send me any other requests.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s gap up probed Wednesday”s intraday high up to 1.0895, but reacted back down under 1.0855 resistance. Almost any delay in extending higher out of the weekend would be likely to retest 1.0590 and potentially lower.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After holding Thursday”s dip to the 1161.00 buy signal, a second consecutive higher confirming close was produced easily by Friday”s session-long rally to test 1187.00. Sunday night / Monday will be interesting, already being within $10 of the rally”s 1197.00 target, with the confirmed buy signal requiring at least (or only) one more eventual higher close, and almost $50 off of the week”s lows.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already outperforming Gold, Friday”s session-long rally confirmed Thursday”s breakout, targeting 17.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s reaction down from Wednesday night”s 164-07 high held its 163-00 pullback limit, although a lower low would have been allowed. Taht wasn”t necessarily too much impatient optimism from a contrarian perspective, although gapping up already Friday and probing fresh highs up to 164-12 does urge caution. No sell signal is triggered on same day as a new high, and extending higher would next target 164-26 area.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from Wednesday”s late surge had retraced to its breakout point Thursday, whose retest overnight launched a surge back to Wednesday”s intraday high. Friday”s open gapped up, which is not appropriate for resuming a corrected breakout. The bounce might extend further, through 47.50 to test 49.55, but back under 45.85 would signal another downleg already underway.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After reacting negatively to Thursday EIA report, the overnight rally gapped up to quickly fill the gap back to Wednesday”s 2.92 close. Too quickly. The balance of the morning reversed down to probe under Thursday”s low testing 2.77 support. Any further delay in resuming the rally would make a retest of recent lows likely.

Posted in Daily Spot