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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Blipping up sharply in reaction to Thursday’s ECB news was reversed back down more sharply Thursday morning, testing the 1.0650 pullback limit. Holding its test prior to probing fresh highs would have been bullish. Not holding its test after probing fresh highs is bearish. And it was broken down to 1.0600, where Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows was triggered. There is no active signal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s shallow dip was similar to Wednesday’s brief probe above 1180.00, both reflecting restrained optimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective — and which should behave very optimistically upon actually breaking above 1180.00. But the shallow dip must continue holding its test of the 1172.50 pullback limit.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday held a test of the 17.00-17.10 pullback limit to maintain the upside momentum. But a second consecutive higher confirming close was not produced, so the rally effort cannot tolerate a second consecutive dip.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging around 151-05 had kept alive potential for resuming the decline, if done immediately, since Wednesday had needed already to resume the decline. Thursday’s gap down did not compensate for the delay because it did not extend lower intraday. Regardless, a second consecutive lower close Friday is needed to confirm.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still consolidating under the 50.50 pullback limit Thursday without extending down has kept alive the potential for rally back up to the 52.75 target. The optimal start would be sudden, steep and substantial.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s muted reaction to the EIA report didn’t reflect the weakness that greeted it. Perhaps that is because a probe of lower lows overnight was recovered and isolated at the open. Still the intraday reaction was also shallow. There is no active signal.