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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | December 15, 2016 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Regardless of the interim bounce, there had been no bullish reason for last Friday’s third return to the lows. Thursday’s gap down immediately fulfilled the 1.0430 target and extended lower to its room for noise down to 1.0365. Closing above 1.0390 would not prevent probing lower Friday, but a negative close would be a little less likely

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Plunging to test 1142.00 after Wednesday’s FOMC news was extended lower overnight to attack 1127.00, and then lower Thursday morning to test 1124.50. Bounces have room up to 1135.50 just as noise, with room for noise below down to 1118.00 that is likely to be tested.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction had returned down to 16.90 for which there was no bullish reason, as proved out by trending down sharply overnight to probe new lows under 16.75. Thursday morning extended down even lower to 15.92, with further room down to 15.67.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down sharply to Wednesday’s FOMC news had attacked prior lows, which were probed by a new low at 147-04 before Thursday’s open. A bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s 148-25 close which tried again to avoid fulfilling the requirement for at least one more new low close before a bottom could form.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A pullback from Sunday night’s high was likely to end Wednesday, or to at least begin recovering immediately Thursday. Gapping down to fresh lows Thursday instead doesn’t reverse the trend down. But it does make a bounce — triggered above 51.75 — likelier to hold a retest of the rally’s 52.75 target, and probably also last Sunday night’s 54.50 high..

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of weakness. That didn’t prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction that blipped-up momentarily to 3.59. But its reaction then spiked back down to probe fresh lows for the pullback at 3.39. Closing at a new relative low fulfills the minimum requirement of Monday’s confirmed breakout. Closing above 3.52 would reverse the trend back up, but there is meanwhile room for lower lows down to 3.31.

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Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only