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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming overnight to test 1.0800 was retraced intraday. Now, recovering 1.0780 should at least target 1.0850. But there is still no signal for the next major leg.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing Tuesday above its gap up after testing 1194.50 support had left no bullish reason to delay extending the rally, let alone to ever revisit 1194.50. But Wednesday”s open gapped back down to and through Tuesday”s gap up, then extended back down to and through 1194.50. Without recovering 1194.50, the break would target 1169.00-1174.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing overnight into the 16.02-16.10 resistance range was rejected by a break to fresh lows Wednesday, qualifying as a breakout. Following a two-day unconfirmed breakout with another breakout tends not to be confirmed, either. The sequence can continue indefinitely, with potential to 14.95.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially probing back above the 163-18 sell signal Wednesday was quickly rejected by a deep drop to fresh lows at 161-08, finally probing under the 4-week old low. A one-day plunge probably won”t satisfy the extended distribution, and a second consecutive lower close Thursday would be predictive, but the decline”s momentum remains intact so long as bounces hold 162-00.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 55.88 pullback limit was probed by 15 cents overnight. Its post-open retest reacted up sharply in reaction to Wednesday”s EIA report. But the rally hasn”t yet resumed, and remains vulnerable to a deeper correction.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again Wednesday tested the 2.60 buy signal (basis May, 2.65 basis Jun) whose recovery would target the 2.80/2.85 area. No alternate pattern is in-play.