Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Breaking with the trend? Monday’s narrow sideways ranging did not mimic Friday’s steep slide to new lows. That is the only indication of Friday’s break being false. A big indication, but the only indication. Otherwise, the drop’s momentum remains intact, next targeting 72.85, and any bounce should hold 74.15. Closing above 74.35 would signal momentum reversing up, and recovering 74.75 would indicate that a big corrective dip had ended, instead of a new downleg extending.
Gold Aug (GCQ) The Icarus rally. Another big rally was cut down intraday. Monday’s 1555.00 high got even closer to the 1558.00-1560.00 corrective rally target. But the $12-gain was retraced almost entirely back down to 1545.00. It’s still positive territory, but closing above 1550.0 would have maintained the rally’s momentum. Recovering it without delay Tuesday would still be bullish.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Saved by the bear. RSIs diverged positively into fresh lows down to 124’17 Monday. The close recovered 124’28 support to rob sellers of their traction. The market’s broader decline may have triggered a flight-to-safety. Regardless, sellers did not gain traction for their earlier efforts.
Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Baby steps. The 99.35 sell signal was probed again Monday, and finally broke lower through the close. But unlike the two prior sessions, 99.35 was probed nominally, and it was still being tested at the close. Not touching Thursday or Friday’s 98.46 or 98.12 lows reflects optimism. This is inappropriate for a bottom from a contrarian perspective, so any initial weakness to fresh lows would be credible for extending down sharply.
Natural Gas Jul (NGN) False alarm. The pullback from the 4.80-4.85 target stopped a nickel short of using its 4.63-4.65 pullback limit before rallying back to 4.85. Closing above 4.85 would have triggered the next upleg underway targeting the 6.00 area. Meanwhile , a pullback still has room down to 4.63-4.65.
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