Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Warning shot across the bow? Wednesday’s open created a gap back down to Tuesday’s 73.53 close. Gapping up above Tuesday’s high made the gap less attractive. So the session ranged narrowly around Monday morning’s 73.94 high. This is not a durable bottom, but extending above 74.00 would trigger a corrective bounce. Otherwise, the next opportunity to form a durable bottom would be by recovering from testing 73.50 to close above 73.70.
Gold Aug (GCQ) Last chance to step on the gas. Gapping down Wednesday tested the 1533.00 pullback limit. It must hold as support on a closing basis to maintain the 1558.00-1560.00 corrective rally’s target. It did hold, so there should be no further delay in resuming the rally if the rally is going to resume.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Hit and run. Four consecutive sessions of selling pressure had failed to gain traction, making Wednesday likely to explode up. The open gapped up above 125’10, and extended higher to retest prior highs up to 126’00. A pullback into the close held 125’20 as support, for what that’s worth. It’s not worth much. The pattern is still not optimal for trading without a setup, like the one that was fulfilled immediately Wednesday.
Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Detour. Done. The third break under the 99.35 sell signal, and its third lower low, had at least avoided closing back above 99.35. At least, not decisively. Regardless, the consequence to further delaying an obvious downleg was a detour up to 101.50. A particularly contentious OPEC meeting made that happen. Closing back under the bounce target now resets the 99.35 sell signal. And breaking it again should not tolerate any bounce.
Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Optimism, where pessimism would be bullish. Another test of 4.85 resistance Wednesday – prior to a pullback testing 4.63.-4.65 – was equally unlikely to extend higher. But now the optimism is bordering on being excessive. If not exploited by a sharp rally Thursday morning – maintained through the close, regardless of whether it were in anticipation of EIA or in reaction – then a bigger pullback would be likely.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…