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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break lower had all but required extending down deeper to at least test 1.1845 before a recovery attempt could be credible for retesting recent highs. Its test in the wake of BOE hawkish comments and a potential N. Korea missile launch was recovered to test 1.1920, but not yet reversing momentum back up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another lower low Wednesday had made the 1318.50 likelier to be tested before any sizable bounce. Thursday morning was well on its way there to within $1 when N. Korea missile rumors triggered a spike up to 1332.00. Having at least tested 1320.00, the pullback can be considered done if its reaction were to close above 1334.00. Otherwise, a more thorough test of 1318.50 would be likely.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Pullbacks had been too shallow to be confident that closing above 17.90 was launching at least a retest of last week’s highs, if not actually resuming the rally. Thursday was already testing 17.70, which held a retest, so that closing above 17.90 would now reverse the trend up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Thursday at 154-12 were quickly retraced up to 155-08 in the wake of Thursday’s N. Korea missile threat. But there was no follow-through, only narrow ranging at the trend lows, still needing to recover 155-20 to signal a bounce underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s close above 48.00 to resume the rally wasted no time extending, gapping up Thursday and probing fresh highs up to 50.50. Last Tuesday’s confirmed breakout has now fulfilled its minimum third higher close. The rally remains intact with potential to 52.00 and 55.00, so long as a pullback can avoid closing under 49.55.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that would have likely recovered from a knee-jerk reaction down. Gapping down slightly held 3.04 and was reversed to fresh highs above 3.10.. Closing back under Wednesday’s 3.07 high won’t tolerate much delay in resuming the rally Friday.