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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction ultimately extended down to 1.1917, completing a 61.8% retracement of the recent rally. The rally’s complete retracement to at least test it 1.1745 low is likely, while bounces hold 1.2025-1.2040.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Wednesday’s FOMC from under 1318.50 wasn’t a position of strength. The reaction plunged to fresh lows that extended lower overnight and Thursday morning to 1291.20. Bounces should hold 1302.50 while the decline extends to test 1288.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering under the 17.30 buy signal Tuesday reacted down sharply to Wednesday’s FOMC, testing 17.00 support Thursday down to 16.88. Bounces should hold 17.30 before a bottom can form.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s attack on 153-14 support reacted up Thursday to test 154-16. The bounce had room up to 154-30 but reacted back down to unchanged. A retest of Wednesday’s low is likely signal before signaling the trend reversing back up, but also likely to hold.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s failed probe of last week’s high extended down only slightly overnight, and ranged narrowly Thursday. Closing under 50.00 would be the first step to reversing the trend down. But any new high close above 51.00 would signal the rally is extending.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pullback’s room down to 3.02 was tested soon after Thursday’s 3.07 open. The reaction to EIA extended down to 2.95. This seriously undermines the ongoing bottoming pattern, or at least its near-term potential to avoid a deeper drop to 2.84.