Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Target met. The bounce’s 76.40 target was tested after Thursday’s gap up, and reacted down to close essentially flat on the day. Extending the rally up sharply immediately Friday may be the only way to avoid starting a deeper downleg.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Delay is not strength. Three days of probing above the 1524.00 sell signal that triggered Monday, has yet to produce a rally. That continues to suggest the bounce has only delayed the sell signal’s outcome, and not invalidated it. Under 1521.00 should resume the decline next targeting 1505.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Back to the decline’s square-one. Thursday’s gapped up to probe fresh highs. A reaction down was recovered enough to close at new highs. The morning’s high and last week’s high were still being tested. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the breakout, next targeting 127’00. Otherwise, closing back under 125’30 would invalidate the breakout, and under 125′20 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Too much impatient selling. Despite Wednesday’s steep drop to 94.03, Thursday’s shallow bounce held 95.50 as resistance. This consolidation’s measurements reflect excessive pessimism, so the next lower low targeting 93.15 and 92.05 may yet trigger a bigger bounce.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Bottom here, or much lower. Not yet having fulfilled the pullback potential down to 4.50, a favorable reaction to Thursday’s EIA report needed to close above 4.70 to signal momentum reversing up. The report instead extended the decline down to 4.42. Closing above 4.50 would now signal the drop’s momentum had ended, and above 4.55 would signal a new rally leg underway.

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