Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still reacting off the rally’s target. The reaction extended down sharply from Thursday’s test of the rally’s 76.40 target. Friday’s 75.35 low tested Wednesday’s low. Gapping down suggests the rally will resume, but there is not currently a new signal.
Gold Aug (GCQ) Better late than never doesn’t apply. Friday finally extended higher to 1543.50, after three consecutive days spent ranging above 1524.00 without extending higher. It’s a little late to be credible for being a new rally leg. A dip still has room down to 1521.00 before triggering the next downleg. But back under 1533.00 would suggest momentum is already shifting down. Closing above 1544.00 first would make target fresh highs at 1558.00-1560.00.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) No moss growing here. Closing under 125’20 would have confirmed Thursday’s new high close at 126’13 had not gained traction. But Friday’s gap down to 125’20 was probed only briefly. Closing positive would have confirmed the breakout attempt, but Friday’s close didn’t even recover 125’28. There is no active signal, but closing above 125’28 or under 125’10 would be credible for extending in that direction intraday.
Crude Oil Jul (CLN) Rock bottom, or is it shale? The 92.05 target was attacked overnight to within a dime. A $2 bounce was retraced intraday to probe fresh lows, and also the target, while RSIs diverged positively. Closing above 93.15 Friday would have robbed sellers of any remaining traction, but its resistance was still being tested at the close. This fulfills the fresh low I described that could launch a bigger corrective bounce. Closing above 95.05 would signal momentum reversing up.
Natural Gas Jul (NGN) The first rule: stop digging. The EIA reaction extended down Friday to test its next target at 4.32. This being a market that tends to mimic Friday’s action on Monday, we’ll need to see at least the morning to identify a new potential long-entry parameter.
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