Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Still absorbing the recent shock. Friday’s big gap down held Wednesday’s low after Thursday’s high had fulfilled the rally’s 76.40 target. The gap down, and holding the prior low, suggested sellers had expended too much energy to extend down. Monday’s gap up suggested as much, despite not extending any higher intraday. Still monitoring for a reliable setup, which has yet to form.
Gold Aug (GCQ) Wild intraday swings, like sound and fury. Initial weakness Monday was recovered well into positive territory, up to 1248.00. A reversal back into negative territory failed to recover 1244.00 through the close. But not for lack of trying – it was touched as resistance just before the close. Closing under 1533.00 would trigger a new downleg underway, and above 1544.00 would be capable of extending the bounce first.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Flirting with support. Monday’s gap up reacted to Friday’s ineffectual pessimism – gapping down and ranging only in negative territory, but not extending down. But Monday’s freswh high up to 126’21 reversed down soon after filling the gap back to Thursday’s 126’13 close. Mid-morning through the afternoon was spent fluctuating momentarily into negative territory. Closing under 125’20 would have signaled momentum reversing down, confirmed under 125’10.
Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Second bottoming signal in two days. Fresh lows down to 91.50 basis Aug (91.14 basis Jul) were recovered back above the 92.40 (92.05) target that had held Friday’s lows. And this time the recovery did close above 93.50 (93.15) to signal this downleg had ended. I have been very bearish on this market for a long time, and last week’s action ahead of 92.40 (92.05) had suggested its test could end the decline. Closing back above 95.85 (95.50) to signal momentum actually reversing up may be only a formality. Meanwhile, a retest of 91.50 (91.14) is possible.
Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Potential turning point. Friday’s drop to 4.32 did not produce a bounce through Monday. But it did hold two more tests as support. A fresh low Tuesday that recovers back above Monday’s 4.38 high would be credible for triggering a rally targeting at least 4.55.
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