Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) In lieu of testing support. Tuesday’s drop never touched support at 74.55-74.75. Wednesday’s gap up wasn’t going to get very far. A temporary intraday dip under prior lows also stopped short of support. But it recovered enough to close positive. That is the basis for a “pivot reversal” setup. Closing above the morning’s 75.31 high would have been optimal, but recovering it early Thursday would still be credible for resuming the rally. Otherwise, there remains potential to test of 74.55-74.75.

Gold Aug (GCQ) New highs noise. The close above 1544.00 did make a test of 1558.1560.00 likely, although there was no reliable path higher. Nonetheless, Wednesday’s high touched 1559.30. Closing back under 1549.50 would now signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Buying pressure not gaining traction. Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Bernanke’s press conference had no meaningful effect on price action. Anticipation was another story, aiding a gap up back to the 125’28 area. But the balance of the session only ranged back down to Tuesday’s 125’13 close. Closing under 125’10 would now signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) More signs of a bottom. The bottoming pattern has already suggested that selling has been absorbed. Wednesday’s rally up to 95.70 offered a glimpse of new buying pressure arriving. Closing above 95.50 would signal momentum actually reversing up, which should now trigger by Friday’s open to avoid printing one more fresh low.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Still avoiding fresh lows. Closing above 4.37 Tuesday was premature for a bottom without first probing fresh lows under 4.32. Probing higher to 4.44 overnight and early Wednesday wasn’t going to get very far. In fact, it was retraced fully to 4.32. Recovering from a fresh low could still form a credible bottom. EIA is reported Thursday.

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