Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Don’t blink, you’ll miss it. Wednesday’s Pivot Reversal around 74.93 extended sharply higher Thursday amid a the news. It filled the gap back to last Thursday’s 76.22 close, whose open had fulfilled the last rally leg’s 76.40 target. The interim drop’s gaps had suggested it would be retraced. But now the retracement’s own excessive optimism is undermining the recovery potential. Unless Friday were to close above 76.40, the pattern may enter another narrow range.
Gold Aug (GCQ) Five up, reversed by one down. Wednesday’s test of the 1558.00-1560.00 area reacted down immediately. Its 1544.00 buy signal was retraced overnight, the 1533.00 sell signal was triggered at Thursday’s open, and the original 1524.00 sell signal was probed intraday – down to 1511.50. Just closing under 1521.00 would signal a new downleg underway, but it was still being tested through the close. A new downleg remains likely, so long as 1524.00 is not recovered on a closing basis.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Another ceiling test. Without yet having closed under 125’10, sellers had yet to gain traction. Thursday’s gap up was natural for a flight-to-safety, and prior highs around 126’16 were probed throughout the day. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a breakout. Regardless, fresh highs can be probed intraday up to 127’00 without gaining traction for anything more substantial.
Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Making a big bottom bigger. Recovering 95.50 should have been only a formality, regardless of the potential to retest 91.52 overnight lows. The Dollar’s overnight surge prevented 95.50‘s recovery, while 91.52 was probed down to 89.69. Still testing 91.52 at Thursday’s close did not allow a bottom to form. Closing back above 83.50 93.50 would suffice, but otherwise lower lows have potential to 88.75. Regardless, the bottoming pattern is only getting bigger.
Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Slamming impatient buyers. Closing above 4.37 Tuesday was premature without first recovering from fresh lows under 4.32. It only added to the pent-up selling pressure, which made Thursday’s drop extend more deeply under 4.16. Closing above 4.20 would rob the drop of its momentum. Closing above 4.30 would signal momentum reversing up.
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