Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Holding pattern. Friday’s inside day may buy some time – another day – for extending Thursday’s recovery by closing above 76.50. Not just probing it intraday, which would not be surprising, but closing above it. Otherwise, the likelier scenario is still a multi-session range back down to Wednesday’s 75.20 close, and possibly also down to 74.55-74.75.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Going, going... Thursday’s close at the 1521.00 sell signal extended down Friday morning to its minimum target at 1505.00. Although this outcome has long been expected, its timing was surprising after Thursday’s steep drop. Session lows actually touched 1498.50, and closing under it Monday would confirm the next lower target in-play at 1474.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Probing highs without gaining traction. Testing of prior highs – centered around 126’12 – were probed Friday up to the next higher resistance calculation at 127’00. No pattern had put the target into play, but its test had become increasingly likely since sellers had failed repeatedly to exploit opportunities for regaining control.  Friday’s 126’18 close was back prior intraday highs, and still no pattern is active. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a breakout, but Friday breakouts are seldom confirmed.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) A bigger bottom still forming. Friday’s inside day did not reject Thursday’s new lows. Testing the next potential target at 88.75 may be inescapable, and the trend remains down. Closing back above 93.50 would suggest otherwise, potentially forming a major bottom.

Natural Gas Jul (NGN) Bottomed out. The second step to forming a bottom was taken by Friday’s bounce from Thursday’s test of 4.16. The third step would be to close above 4.28-4.32. Basing  for another session before extending the recovery would help to launch a more durable rally.

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