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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s early blip-up above 1.2320 never extended higher intraday. Friday’s open blipped-back down but never extended down. The burden of proof is on buyers, so the pattern is more vulnerable to extending down further.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Little movement intraday Friday is not helpful in trying to reject Wednesday’s dip. Closing back above 1335.00 would still be credible for launching a recovery, but it is no more likely.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing into Friday’s open stopped short of triggering a recovery, which keeps the pattern in the vicinity of its 16.50 sell signal whose trigger would target a retest of prior lows.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce extended higher overnight and into Friday afternoon to 144-05, still leaving “unfinished business below” at the gap back down to Wednesday’s 142-20 close. Back under 143-12 would signal the bounce had ended.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher again Friday confirmed Thursday’s breakout from the recent range, putting into play at least an eventual third higher close, and probably also a test of 67.05. Pullbacks meanwhile should be limited to testing 61.35, although there isn’t any bullish reason for any more backing-and-filling before extending higher.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still hovering flat-to-lower into the weekend avoided closing the week at a new low close, but also avoided the bullish setup of recovering from probing fresh lows intraday — and at least probing fresh lows intraday remains very likely, if not also required before a recovery would be credible.