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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | June 30, 2011 - 6:01 pm

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Day late, dollar short. Get it? The 74.55-74.75 pullback target was finally met Thursday before the open. It was a pullback target one week ago, but wasn’t met before a Pivot Reversal triggered a detour back to prior highs. Now a bounce has room up to 74.85-75.05 without yet gaining traction to launch a new rally leg. Meanwhile, extending the decline could test 74.15 before suggesting a much bigger downleg is underway.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Still testing resistance. Bounce potential was increased up to 1515.00 for Thursday after Wednesday’s potential to 1507.50 was attacked to within 50 cents. The higher resistance was attacked to within 20 cents before reversing down sharply. Another bounce intraday was also rejected. There’s still room to fluctuate without yet resuming the decline that is next targeting 1474.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Minimum objective met. The drop from 127’00 extended down sharply Thursday for a third consecutive session. The intraday probe down to 122’05 was recovered to close back above the drop’s 122’28 initial objective. Actually, it was still being tested through the close, making a corrective bounce likelier, but still not required. A corrective bounce’s target would be 124’12, but extending the decline would next target 120’12.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Waiting for a bigger shoe to drop. Thursday’s test of 95.50 held for the second consecutive day Thursday. Breaking higher after testing resistance for two days would be suspicious without an interim pullback. Fresh highs Friday could attract one more round of selling – whether it is organic pessimism, or external (SPR dump). Reversing an early surge to close negative would trigger another dip targeting 92.50, possibly an intraday probe under 91.00, and potentially 88.75.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) More sellers trapped. Pessimism down to 4.21 ahead of Thursday’s EIA report triggered a gap down that filled the gap back to Monday’s close. Then, true to form with extreme sentiment before an EIA report, the market reversed up sharply to test 4.38. Just recovering 4.35 suggests sellers have been marginalized. Closing above 4.38 – or else extending sharply higher without delay – would signal a new upleg underway.

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