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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | April 5, 2018 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s bounce was formally rejected by Thursday’s gap down which probed deeper intraday. Any lower close would confirm the trend remains down. Only ranging sideways Friday would be more difficult to extend.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness enabled a gap down Thursday to 1332.00, filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Closing lower Friday would reinstate the downleg targeting 1295.00 and lower.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing lower to 16.15 Thursday morning reacted back up into positive territory, attacking 16.40 whose recovery would undermine the week’s drop, and avoiding a lower close Thursday that would have confirmed the trend already reversing down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for the pullback to extend down to the 145-00 area was exploited already overnight down to 144-27, which was retested later Thursday morning. So, price has reversed as much as is possible without yet reversing momentum down, just ahead of a reliable catalyst in Friday’s Employment Situation report. Notwithstanding an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, not yet reversing back up Friday would suggest the pullback is extending much more deeply.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s recovery had only filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, without closing higher to confirm momentum had reversed up. Thursday’s fluctuation around Wednesday and Tuesday’s close doesn’t yet make the pattern any less vulnerable to retesting the 62.62 pullback limit. But any early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend, confirmed by closing above 64.25.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of weakness, and its reaction down back to 2.65 still needs a second consecutive lower close on Friday to be reliable as the downleg that retests the recent 2.62 low down to 2.52.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only