Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Reluctantly bottoming. A spike up in reaction to Portugal’s downgrade still peaked at the 74.85-75.05 bounce limit that had contained Friday’s bounce. Closing above it prior to fresh lows retesting 74.55 support would not be very credible for reversing momentum up. Trying to rally too soon may only stretch the rubber band tighter for fresh lows to test 74.15.
Gold Aug (GCQ) No grapefruit is an island, either. Tuesday’s open gapped up above Friday’s range, essentially forming an Island. Its recovery extended higher intraday to probe last week’s 1515.00 bounce limit by several dollars after the pit close. Back under 1507.50 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting a retest of Friday’s lows down to the decline’s 1474.50 target.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Beware the shallow bounce. Thursday’s test of the drop’s minimum objective at 122’28 robbed the decline of its traction. It has yet to produce much of a bounce. Friday’s 123’12 high was retested throughout Tuesday. The bounce’s delay should not be confused with basing. No bounce is required before resuming the decline, and resuming the decline prior to bouncing could form a plunge to 120’12.
Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Beware the false break. An overnight dip to 94.35 stopped optimistically short of touching – let alone triggering – the 94.25 sell signal. Tuesday’s open gapped up above prior highs to attack 97.50. Closing above 95.50 signals a new rally leg underway, but color me suspicious. If a second consecutive higher close on Wednesday doesn’t confirm, then a quick downleg targeting a probe under 91.00 becomes very likely.
Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) That’s the wind-up, now waiting for the pitch. Despite gapping up Tuesday to test the 4.40 buy signal, a steep mid-morning drop to 4.25 probed under Friday’s 4.30 lows. Despite probing under Friday’s 4.30 lows, Tuesday’s close recovered to close positive, attacking 4.40. Early strength Wednesday would be credible for launching a rally leg, but almost any further delay would be difficult to avoid fresh lows under 4.20.
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