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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday didn’t show any interest in doing what Wednesday failed to do, exceeding through the 1.24355 buy signal. And so it reacted down again back to 1.2390, which should recover without delay if the pattern still intends to resolve up. A deeper pullback could still test 1.2335 before reversing the trend down, but that would likely be only a formality.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s dip to 1344.00 held and recovered back above 1347.25 to keep alive the attraction above to 1361.00-1364.00. Any lower close would invalidate the pattern’s accumulative features and almost reverse the trend down.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Essentially testing the rally’s first objective at 17.37 Thursday held as resistance for a shallow intraday reaction down to attack 17.05 as support. Closing any lower would undermine the upside momentum, which otherwise is next targeting 17.65.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Apparently satisfied with a straight 61.8% retracement that stopped short of its 146-10 potential, the pattern’s reversal down extend Wednesday’s 145-04 sell signal to fresh lows at 143-12. Closing under 143-22 would signal the decline is likely to extend without delay, but closing above 143-22 allows for a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher without delay tested the 69.50 target before Thursday’s regular open, but not intraday which reacted to pierce under Wednesday’s highs down to 68.15. A second consecutive higher close would have put into play an eventual third higher close or more. Failing to produce that setup, while also fulfilling the pattern’s buying pressure, introduces vulnerability to reversing down with little warning.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ongoing distributive behavior in testing the 2.75 bounce limit finally reacted down to test the 2.70 sell signal Thursday. Its initial probe was retraced enough to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close. The balance of the session trended back down to fresh lows at 2.66. A second consecutive lower close for confirmation would be helpful, but neutralizing the attraction above is already helpful to reversing the trend back down.