Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Patience is a… too late. Wednesday’s rally came without first probing a fresh low under 74.55. And Tuesday’s dip stopped short of actually filling the gap back to Friday’s close. Gapping up Wednesday only increases the excessive optimism. The rally could extend, but it is probably only a corrective bounce.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Too much, too fast. Wednesday extended Tuesday’s rally from Friday’s Island. Already 61.8% of the drop from prior highs has been retraced, and could extend slightly higher to test 1540.00 before reversing down hard.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Not a bullish use of time. Another day was spent only hovering at or above resistance. This limited bounce doesn’t create room to absorb a likely retest of prior lows. And the delay doesn’t prevent sellers from refueling. Resuming the decline soon would likely be violent.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Too little, too late. Tuesday’s breakout above 95.50 was too late to be optimal. But a second consecutive higher close would have confirmed. Wednesday didn’t confirm, so a break back under 95.50 would target a test of 91.00.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) The downside of bottoming. Wednesday failed to exploit another opportunity to rally above 4.40, which would trigger a new rally leg underway. The delay can be dismissed due to EIA coming Thursday morning. But no further delay could be considered bullish.

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