Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Careful what you ask for. Thursday’s gap up was appropriate for the excessive optimism that Wednesday’s gap up exploited. Thursday’s post-open reversal back into negative territory – and under Wednesday’s lows – was appropriate for a rally’s weak-handed sponsorship. Thursday’s close was still consolidating at or under Wednesday’s lows, so the next higher high (if there is one, presumably testing 75.85-75.90) should produce a downleg targeting 74.15.
Gold Aug (GCQ) Feeling left out. Thursday’s relatively narrow range was interrupted by a momentary spike down to the 1522.00 area. That doesn’t undermine the bounce’s momentum. But any weakness upon testing a fresh high in the 1540.00 area would become vulnerable to reversing down sharply.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Denial is making matters worse. Extended ranging around 122’28-123’12 had not only failed to extend higher, but it also produced a gap down Thursday. The gap down didn’t extend lower, but neither was it recovered, as ranging continued around 122’28-123’12. An negative reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report could plunge under 121’00. Avoiding a negative reaction through Friday’s close would be bullish for a bigger corrective bounce.
Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Too much, too late. Wednesday had not provided a second consecutive higher close to confirm Tuesday’s breakout close above 95.50. Thursday’s open nevertheless gapped up to a new recovery high at 99.42. Despite so much momentum, there was no net improvement from the opening print. Not first dipping under 91.00 before rallying – or rallying too late – is still vulnerable to being excessive optimism, and not a new durable upleg, that could peak at 100.50.
Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) To stand still is to fall behind. Repeatedly refusing to probe 4.40 resistance has resulted in a probe of new lows down to 4.07. A new low had become the likely consequence to further delaying a new rally leg. Closing back above prior lows Thursday could have robbed sellers of their traction. Having failed that, closing Friday back above 4.25 would be needed to form a two-day pattern signaling momentum reversing up.
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