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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | May 24, 2018 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing “higher priopr lows” at 1.1755 overnight limited Thursday’s gap up. Now filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1.1730 open can complete a bottom.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back up Thursday to retest Wednesday’s 1298.00 pre-open high only extended higher to 1306.50. The pattern leaves “unfinished business below,” but a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a test of 1316.00-1317.00 is in-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up to Tuesday’s 16.57 close ignored Wednesday’s gap down and probe lower. It even extended to test Tuesday’s 16.70 high. Closing any higher would start to signal another detour from probing new lows, let alone filling the 3-week old gap outstanding below.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing AT the 142-02 buy signal Wednesday was extended overnight to gap up Thursday, and that was extended intraday back up to the original 143-07 sell signal. A more bullish recovery would have first dipped to test “lower prior highs” at 141-04/141-10 before trying to extend higher, which is instead vulnerable to reacting down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s low was optimal for ending the corrective dip and resuming the rally targeting 74.20. But Thursday night’s slide gapped down to test 70.65 support, which is a 61.8% retracement of the prior extended consolidation that had launched the latest upleg. And that was launched after an initial breakout had been corrected already. So, Thursday’s extended dip isn’t bullish, and must be rejected almost immediately, and aggressively, to avoid a deeper dip.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was modest, barely improving before holding the resistance of Wednesday’s 2.94 high. “Ineffectual pessimism” should resolve up aggressively Friday, or else another corrective dip would become more likely.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only