Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Supporting excessive optimism. Monday’s open gapped up much more substantially than the rally’s two prior gaps up. The 75.85-75.90 target was exceeded, never touched intraday. But in a sign that too much buying pressure was expended too soon, the open’s gap up was never extended higher intraday, either. Avoiding a close under 75.85-75.90 Tuesday would allow the rally to extend higher, next targeting 77.10 and potentially 77.60.
Gold Aug (GCQ) Stuck up. Friday’s test of 1540.00 wasn’t rejected in time to reverse momentum down. Much higher highs up to 1557.00 were largely retraced, but only down to 1542.00 intraday to fill the open’s gap. Closing under 1540.00 would now signal a new downleg underway. Meanwhile, the alternative is probe fresh highs above 1560.00, probably without gaining traction, while awaiting a downleg to begin.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) A big bounce, for a bounce. Monday’s flight-to quality (how quaint) extended Friday’s bounce through its next resistance to 125’28, and higher. Closing above 125’28 signaled that the last downleg has been fully absorbed, putting into play new highs at 127’24. A second consecutive higher close – preferably above 126’18 – must still confirm. A new downleg would be signaled by closing back under 125’10 – preferably Tuesday.
Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) Still paying the price of impatience. Last week’s unconfirmed rally that tried extending higher continued to unwind on Monday. The original 94.25 sell signal was tested intraday without recovering back above 95.50. This may be equilibrium, which would allow a temporary bounce Tuesday up to 97.00. Otherwise, the drop underway has potential to probe under 91.00.
Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) Too much, too late. Monday’s open gapped up to test 4.30, whose recovery through the close would have signaled momentum reversing up. But 4.30 held through the close. Gapping up Tuesday above 4.40 would offer another opportunity to rally. Otherwise, filling the gap back down to Friday’s 4.20 close and then closing positive above 4.30 would trigger a rally.
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