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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | June 6, 2018 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday ranged narrowly sideways above the 1.1755 bounce limit, which had reacted down on Monday. The reaction bottomed Tuesday optimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s close. So, already resolving up is premature and impatient, and not reliable for extending higher. back under 1.1745 would signal momentum reversing down again.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s bounce had already filled the gap back up to last Thursday’s 1305.00 close, and reacted down intraday. Wednesday’s retest of Tuesday’s high starts chipping away at its resistance. The bearish pattern needs no further backing-and-filling or other delays in resuming its decline, which start to become bullish.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength retested the 16.55 bounce limit that was tested already Tuesday, and held. Wednesday’s open gapped back up to it, and surged to fresh highs attacking 16.80. Its immediate rejection is not possible, so only closing back under 16.55 Thursday would even begin to signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping back up to the 143-22 sell signal Tuesday had tried to undermine Monday’s break under it. Narrow fluctuation around 143-22 kept the door open to extending Monday’s break. Overnight weakness did that, testing 142-16 support that must now break lower to confirm the trend has reversed down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s post-close API report was greeted from a position of weakness, which didn’t prevent reacting down on the news. Wednesday morning’s EIA report faced the same difficulty and had the same reaction. Avoiding a new low close keeps open the potential for a recovery that would be signaled by closing above 66.25.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength for having “unfinished business above” and holding a pullback test of support at “lower prior highs.” The delay in recovering the dip to lower prior highs is not bullish. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down would be likely to recover.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only