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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | June 19, 2018 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s overnight test of the 1.1625 target was tested intraday for the first time at Tuesady’s open. The gap back up to Monday’s 1.1700 close requires eventually being filled. The balance of the morning bounced to 1.1665, maintaining what is now the bounce limit at 1.1675.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having held a test of the 1284.00 bounce limit Monday, the decline was free to resume, which it did overnight down to 1272.50. Its reaction up held Friday’s “higher prior lows” at 1278.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce attempt was shallow and brief and settled under uptrending support at 16.45. Trending down overnight to 16.25 was recovered through the morning up to 16.37, maintaining the decline’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s shallow gap up was retraced to the 143-16 buy signal, which launched an overnight rally to fresh recovery highs at 144-25. Its reaction down tested Friday’s 144-10 high as support.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down overnight, after Monday had held the 65.65 buy signal, probed Friday’s low for a 61.8% retracement of the bounce from Sunday night’s 63.40 low. Just closing under 64.10 would signal that Friday’s break under 66.10-66.30 is extending into a new downleg. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of weakness.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s breakout had satisfied the outstanding requirement for at least one more new high close. Reacting down Monday avoided confirming the new breakout. But holding 2.95 had prevented signaling that momentum is reversing down. Extending down overnight now triggers that signal, but requires its own second consecutive lower close Wednesday to confirm — or else Thursday’s EIA report won’t be greeted from a position of weakness.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only