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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 14, 2011 - 7:33 pm

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Optimism not so excessive anymore. Overnight lows tested 75.00 to retrace the doomed breakout rally back to its origin. A bounce into mid-morning turned positive up to 75.64, which was still being tested at the close. A bounce still has room up to 75.75, perhaps up to 75.85-76.00, before resuming the decline to its 74.15 objective.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Music slowing, and one chair missing. Thursday’s third consecutive higher close was the first not to extend higher after the pit close. Now all post-close higher highs have been tested intraday. The rally’s next higher objective is 1604.50-1606.00, so long as 1578.50 were to hold any pullback as support. Closing under 1568.50 would trigger a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Ducking the bullets for a day. Thursday’s close was in the process of testing 125’28 support, without having improved Wednesday’s intraday recovery. The muted reaction to three pre-open reports would have been bearish had it included a failed probe above a prior high, but the session was instead an inside day. The pattern is not attractive for trading, but its 127’24 objective remains outstanding so long as 125’20 holds as support.

Crude Oil Aug (CLQ) This could leave a mark. Thursday’s steep slide reacted down sharply from Wednesday having filled the gap back to last Thursday’s Island at 98.46. Closing under 96.90 would have sufficed to signal momentum reversing down – the session low was 94.53. Closing under 94.25 would confirm a probe underway of 91.00, potentially down to 88.75.

Natural Gas Aug (NGQ) Another opportunity to rally. Thursday’s session was interesting not just for absorbing a steep intraday dip down to 4.25 and recovering back to almost 4.40, but for patiently hovering into the close just under positive territory. Firming above 4.42 could seal a bottom and trigger a rally sharply leg through Monday.

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Posted in Daily Spot