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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s shallow dip had nevertheless held a relevant support at 1.1740 before recovering to attack the morning’s high. But it still needed a second consecutive higher confirming close. Which didn’t come, as Tuesday morning trended back down to and through Friday’s close to attack 1.1700.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight rally held the 1245.50 bounce limit but still gapped up slightly above Monday’s 1240.00 close. Then price plunged back through the decline’s 1237.50 target to fresh lows testing 1226.00. After Monday’s low had neutralized the “unfinished business below” at Friday’s opening gap down, there was no bullish reason for any further weakness, enabling Tuesday’s sizeable reaction.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down back to Friday’s shallow low proved that previous bottoming attempts were ‘ineffectually optimistic” as the morning slid sharply to attack 15.55.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
If Monday’s probe under the channel’s 145-02 lower-end were a false break, then Tuesday should have rejected the probe by rallying sharply. But price only hovered, suggesting that Monday’s probe was a warning shot across the bow. Breaking above Monday’s high through Wednesday’s open would be credible for launching another bounce, but at least another downleg has become more likely.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Regardless of having fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum objective with Monday’s fresh low close, no buy signal had formed, and Tuesday probed slightly lower lows intraday.. Then it recovered positive territory, albeit only slightly positive, but not confirming the decline’s momentum.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s choppy bounce had tried extending slightly higher overnight to 2.79, but Monday morning drop to fresh lows at 2.73 essentially proved the decline remains intact. That’s probably not enough consequence for the failed choppy bounce, suggesting that lower lows remain in-play.