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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | July 19, 2018 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday night’s drop gapped down Thursday under the 1.1665 support that had defined Wednesday’s low. Testing four-week old 1.1620-1.1625 support reacted up again Thursday, first bouncing and then surging back into positive territory to 1.1725 resistance. Closing any higher Friday would target the gap back up to 1.1850.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending down overnight and gapping down sharply to test 1211.00 firmed through the morning, then surged out of the noon hour’s interest rate comments. The gap back up to Wednesday’s 1228.00 close was nearly filled. Regardless, Thursday’s 1215.00 opening print can now be filled from above to form a durable bottom.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down to test 15.20 had consolidated back to the decline’s 15.25 target area when the interest rate comments triggered a sure that touched Wednesday’s 15.42 “higher prior lows.” Now Thursday’s opening print can be filled from above to form a durable bottom.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing Monday morning’s low down to 144-12 stopped short of its 144-08 potential before surging once again back into the 145-02/145-25 range. While Monday’s dip warned of a deeper probe coming, could Thursday’s dip be that completed probe? Probably not, but less so if Thursday’s bounce isn’t retraced into the weekend.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing above Tuesday’s 68.45 interim high — more decisively than Wednesday — suggests that a bottom is forming. A second consecutive higher close is required to confirm.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA reprot from a position of weakness only gapped down and probed fresh lows down to 2.70. The knee-jerk reaction surged back up to 2.77. The outside day probed above Wednesday’s highs, which doesn’t require any upside follow-through, but should avoid probing above Thursday’s highs to maintain the decline’s momentum.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only