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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | July 20, 2018 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Narrow overnight ranging seemed unaware of China’s devaluation. But it eventually rallied, gapping up through the 1.1725 resistance’s buy signal that had only been touched Thursday. This fulfills the second consecutive higher close required to put into play a retest of the recent 1.1850 high.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping overnight to 1215.30 came within a dime of filling the gap back to Thursday’s gap down. That was close enough to react up into Friday’s open, which extended higher. Closing above Thursday’s 1229.60 high is close enough to signal momentum has reversed up. “Higher prior lows” to 1238.00 is a minimum upside objective. Regardless, an intraday test of 1215.20 would have been optimal, and still would be optimal to completing a durable bottom.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The decline’s 12.25 target was retested overnight, filling the gap back to Thursday’s open. Already recovering into Friday’s open extended through Thursday’s 15.48 high which would be bullish if recovered through the close. Upside potential could easily test 15.78 regardless of the resolution.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s fresh low was too brief to fulfill Monday’s “warning shot,” especially when the recovery once again stopped well short of rewarding its buyers. Narrow ranging through Friday’s open eventually broke sharply lower to fulfill the closes lower objective at 144-08. The fresh low close into the weekend suggests at least a temporary lower low Monday.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep, which trades at a 1.75 discount to Aug]… Thursday’s recovery above its last relative high still needed confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Friday that momentum is reversing up. The early recovery was just enough, but never extended higher intraday.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up had held the 2.78 resistance which Friday morning did test. Until that’s recovered, the pattern remains likely to resume its decline.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only