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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Closing at fresh trend extremes on Friday all but ensures probing another extreme at some point on Monday. Which Sunday night did easily on continued Turkish Lira issues. Rallying in reaction to a potential softening of Turkey sanctions was short-lived, or at least corrected. There is no longer “unfinished business below,” but not yet a buy signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two-three bounces last week each held relevant resistance while maintaining the pattern’s downside momentum. Monday’s gap down far below the range extended down intraday. Closing at or under 1201.50 keeps alive the break’s momentum, next targeting 1188.50-1191.50. And that could confirm Monday as a breakout.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Delaying repeatedly the outstanding attraction down to 15.25 had become likely to probe it much deeper in compensating for the delay. Sunday night’s probe did extend down to fresh lows under 15.00. Which qualifies as a breakout from the multi-session range, so a second consecutive lower close on Tuesday would require at least an eventual third lower close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday moring’s dip back down to 144-00 fluctuated sideways into the afternoon, still not resuming Friday’s rally despite having the same catalysts of Turkey turmoil and stock market weakness. A deeper reaction would still have room down to 143-12 before reversing the trend back down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s inside day was biased-up to reflect weak-handed buyers. Already weaker Sunday night, price slid further through the open and collapsed during the morning to fresh lows. No buy signal is considered in this pattern until closing back above at least a prior low. Which will make it difficult or unlikely for Tuesday to form a position of strength ahead of  Wednesday morning’s EIA report (let alone Tuesday’s post-close API).

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight weakness fell slightly lower Monday morning, which wasn’t surprising after three consecutive sessions at recovery highs had failed to extend. But the dip, even if it were to extend deeper Tuesday, would be likely to recover because the same consolidation took so long to attempt rejecting its target area.