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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | September 20, 2018 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Recent “ineffectual optimism” wasn’t exploited Wednesday, which left the door open to extending down aggressively Thursday. To the contrary, fresh highs overnight gapped up sharply Thursday to test 1.1865, still having room up to 1.1845 before abandoning any near-term vulnerable to launching a new downleg — which would be confirmed only upon closing under 1.1785.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1201.50-1209.50 range’s upper-end was probed overnight, and again intraday Thursday up to 1213.00. Triggering it, and then confirming with a second consecutive higher close into the weekend would launch a new upleg, albeit likely temporary with unfinished business below still outstanding. Not triggering the 1209.50 buy signal, or not confirming it, could instead stretch the rubber band to snap back down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing the 14.33 buy signal overnight, or perhaps more accurately just overlapping it up to 14.38, was unable to trigger Thursday. But almost any further strength early Friday would be likely to extend higher into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s early trading held a retest of the 139-26 support that had also held Wednesday, before reversing up to attack 140-20. Closing above 140-04 robs the decline of its momentum, so an immediate dip Friday would be likelier to hold if not also reverse up into the weekend.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to NOV, which is trading at a 25-cent discount to OCT]… Fresh highs overnight up to 71.35 were attacked post-open up to 71.25, as part of the same range, so no fresh high is required in this setup. More predictive is whether the confirmed breakout’s third higher close is fulfilled above 70.75. Closing under 69.05 would reverse the trend down.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength. Its knee-jerk reaction down to 2.88 snapped back up and extended sharply higher to 2.99, establishing the new rally leg underway.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only