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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 21, 2011 - 6:38 pm

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Fighting head winds to stay on course. Wild overnight and intraday gyrations did not prevent the decline from attacking its 74.15 target to within 15 cents, which was triggered by Monday’s failure to close above 75.85. The target remains intact so long as bounces now hold any test of 74.65 as resistance. That can be tricky in this news environment.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Quicksand top. Recovering from Tuesday’s 1588.50-1593.50 pullback limit’s test never formed a new accumulation pattern that could resume the rally. Retracing to the pullback’s 1602.00 origin has triggered a dip back down to 1585.00. Closing under 1588.50 would put into play 1575.00, whose break would trigger a new downleg.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) This should be bearish, but… Debt deal news items played ping pong from Wednesday’s close into Thursday afternoon, taking price along for a straight ride down. Although 125’10 was broken through the close, the close was also still in the process of testing recent lows, after filling the most recent gap back down to 124’28. It is bearish price action, and a second consecutive lower close would confirm a downleg is underway. Until then, one more temporary rally up to 127’24 is still possible before failing.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) The reluctant rally. Probes and consolidations above 97.35 resistance up to 99.35 weren’t considered breakouts because buyers never gained traction. Nevertheless, Wednesday night’s pullback to 96.90 produced a rally that probed 100.00 Thursday. Yet again, its close back under prior highs meant buyers didn’t gain traction. A rally could still extend higher, but not with any predictable path or velocity. And a close under 97.35 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) One more opportunity to rally. Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up to 4.56 reacted down sharply to 4.34 on EIA news. That actually fills an outstanding gap. Closing above 4.42 would be credible for extending higher, but an interim dip down to 4.30 would be appropriate, first. Closing under 4.29 would suggest a bigger downleg underway.

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Posted in Daily Spot