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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | October 5, 2018 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday could almost be construed as an inside day, but its high did pierce Thursday’s range. So did its low, if ignoring the overnight low that was never revisited intraday. Regardless, the delay in exploiting Thursday’s recovery from overnight lows now requires adjusting the buy signal up to 1.1630, still targeting 1.1740. Fresh lows would instead resume the decline.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s close at or under the 1203.00 sell signal never extended under 1201.50 to confirm before bouncing Friday back up to the 1209.50 yet again. It held, yet again, keeping alive the potential for a break lower that would target 1172.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing under the 14.65 pullback limit Thursday didn’t gain any traction before bouncing back up Friday morning. The pattern remains vulnerable to probing above 14.80 so long as the pullback limit continues to hold.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s fresh low close fulfilled the minimum requirement for at least an eventual third lower close, which had been created by Wednesday’s confirmed sell signal. Further lower lows are possible, and likely until a reversal signal forms. But the pattern of two consecutive slightly lower lows following Wednesday’s plunge tends to reflect pent-up selling pressure that makes the decline likely to persist.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s bounce helps offers further validation to the 73.90 sell signal being influential, following Thursday’s intraday slide that ended upon touching it. But it doesn’t ensure resuming the rally to its 78.10 target without further delays before triggering its 75.45 buy signal.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s retracement of the recent rally eventually extended Friday morning after gapping up to 3.22. Its reaction more fully tested the room for a pullback down to 3.11. Back above 3.20 should resume the rally.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only