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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday and Thursday’s session-long downtrends had retraced from “higher prior lows” and a gap fill up to 1.1545 to pierce the 1.1400 sell signal. Trending down further Friday confirmed the break, which now requires at least an eventual third lower close. Which would necessarily create a break under the prior Wednesday’s low that Friday’s 1.1350 low was testing.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing under 1228.00 again Thursday, and to its deepest yet, extended overnight and through Friday morning to attack 1207.00. The next lower attraction in-play is 1201.50, whose break would target 1172.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down overnight greeted Friday’s open back at the same 14.28 test which had stopped the previous gap down there from extending. But its supportive value was now expended, so the test was likely to extend down intraday, and did, attacking 14.05. Any lower would essentially confirm a much larger downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Filling the gap intraday back to last Friday’s 137-02 close was recovered intraday to attack the 138-04 buy signal. Also, the inverse correlation with stocks seems to have re-engaged, so triggering the buy signal might require stocks to break lower as a catalyst for a flight-to-safety.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Although the 63.22 break’s third lower close requirement was fulfilled already, nothing had signaled the decline ending. Trending down further overnight gapped down and attacked 59.25. The d=session developed exclusively in negative territory, while testing two-month old “lower prior highs” — on the 10th day of lower consecutive prices — making the pattern vulnerable to an up/down-crash setup that either explodes higher or implodes down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday night rallied sharply from the week’s multi-session range up to 3.64, despite no interim price correction since the last gap up. Extending to 3.80 now requires a second consecutive higher close to confirm that at least an eventual third higher close is required. That’s difficult between Friday-Monday. A pullback to “lower prior highs” at 3.55 is likelier, if not also down to 3.41.