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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not yet resolving down by Friday’s open kept the door open to extending the corrective bounce for a test of the original 1.1400 sell signal, which was probed intraday up to 1.1445. Closing above 1.1480 would suggest a bigger bounce underway, but otherwise closing back under 1.1400 would once again target recent lows.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending the bounce into Friday fulfilled its 1222.00 corrective bounce target and tested “higher prior lows” while also filling a gap up to 1226.00. Closing back under 1220.50 would start to signal the bounce was failing, and targeting a retest of 1201.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already extending higher overnight was able to test its 14.36 corrective bounce target Friday morning, up to 14.40 in the afternoon, also testing “higher prior lows” and filling a gap. Closing back under 14.25 would signal a retest of recent lows and lower underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s reaction down had not broken under any relevant support, keeping alive upside momentum that enabled retesting Thursday’s high on Friday morning. The rally resumed up to 139-20, now needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm a more durable rally is underway.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness had only prevented a favorable knee-jerk reaction from extending, but didn’t prevent extending higher anyway overnight into Friday morning up to 57.95. Regardless, Tuesday’s plunge all but requires a retest or probe of its 54.75-55.55 lows before any durable bottom could form, which became much more obvious as the morning’s gap up was reversed by $2 to probe negative territory down to 56.90.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Only a slightly lower low overnight down to 3.90 preceded Friday’s flat-to-higher ranging, which retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s post-open range up to 4.35. Extending the pullback from Wednesday’s high would next target 3.80.