Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) The decline got ahead of itself. Tuesday break under the decline’s 74.15 target was valid, but it was not confirmed by a lower close Wednesday. Wednesday bounced to fill the gap back up to Monday’s close – its attraction above has now been neutralized. And now the gap back down to Tuesday’s close is an attraction below. Perhaps a bottom is forming, which would avoid actually touching the decline’s next target at 73.00. But Wednesday’s bounce is not likely to extend higher before retesting Monday’s 73.60-73.65 lows.
Gold Aug (GCQ) Proof of excessive optimism. Wednesday’s session almost did everything that a top needed to do. Sunday night’s 1624.30 high was probed intraday, and the probe was rejected back to prior lows. But the rejection stopped short of actually closing under prior lows. Optimism remains too excessive to extend the rally. But a new downleg can’t be signaled before closing back under 1605.50.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) No panic. Yet. Still no close above 125’28, so no rally targeting 127’24 has been triggered. But sellers aren’t gaining any traction either, despite their recent sporadic efforts, and despite having headlines in their favor.
Crude Oil Sep (CLU) One step away from a tumble. Wednesday’s open gapped down and quickly broke under 98.35 to the 97.35 support. There was no bullish reason to revisit it. Just returning down to 97.35 confirms the probing above has been distributive. Closing any lower would signal a downleg underway. Breaking under 97.35 would be entirely credible for extending down to probe under 91.00.
Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Missed opportunity for strength. While Wednesday’s session didn’t extend Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism,” it also didn’t exploit it with a rally. So, Thursday’s EIA report won’t be greeted from a bullish posture above 4.42-4.43. Oh, well. We’ll look at any pre-report extreme sentiment – which tends to be contrary – and at the reaction to the report, for an opportunity.
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